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FORECAST REVISION v. 2.0.2 |
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Problem
Statement |
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Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR®) is a well documented nine step process developed
and maintained by the Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards Association
(VICS) for use by trading partners.
In the CPFR® process a forecast revision is a change to a forecast which is
a collection of time series data items, called forecast items, which describe
future demand for products sourced from a seller organization and distributed
at a specific buyer location.
Forecast items may be frozen, in which case
they may not be adjusted. Otherwise, the
receiving organization has the option of revising the item and notifying an
appropriate trading partner via a forecast revision.
Forecast revision messages have the same
structure as forecasts. However,
forecast revisions trade items have a comment and an adjustment reason code,
which explain why the revision is being proposed. Forecast revision trade items also include
the timestamp of the forecast being revised, so that comparisons with the
original forecast can be made.
Forecast revisions may be submitted (new),
acknowledged, accepted, rejected or superseded.
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Objective |
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To supply the detail design
of the Forecast Revision business transaction needed to meet the requirements of the
referenced BRAD(s).
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Audience |
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The audience for this document is anyone
involved in collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment.
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Business
Context
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Industry: All
Geopolitical: All
Product: All
Process: Plan
System
Capabilities: EAN.UCC
Official
Constraints: None
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Business
Transaction View
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The buyer and seller must engage and complete CPFR® Step 1 “Develop Collaboration
Arrangement” and CPFR® Step 2 “Create Joint Business Plan” as prerequisite steps to creating
forecasts.
Step 1 is where the buyer and seller establish the guidelines and rules
for the collaborative relationship. The
“collaboration arrangement” addresses each party’s expectations and the actions
and resources necessary for success. To
accomplish this, the buyer and seller co-develop a general business arrangement
that includes the overall understanding and objective of the collaboration,
confidentiality agreements, and the empowerment of resources (both actions and
commitment) to be employed throughout the CPFR® process.
In step 2 the seller and buyer exchange
information about their corporate strategies and business plans in order to
collaborate on developing a joint business plan. Following the principles of category
management, the partners first create a partnership strategy and then define
category roles, objectives, and tactics.
The item management profiles (e.g., order minimums and multiples, lead
times, order intervals) for items to be collaborated on are established. The development of a joint business plan
improves the overall quality of forecasting by including data from both
parties. It also facilitates
communication and coordination across the supply chain.
Revisions may occur while processing either a sales
forecast or an order forecast.
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Use Case
Description
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Use Case ID
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UC-1
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Use Case Name
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Sales Forecast |
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Use
Case Description
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The objective is to elaborate upon the Sales Forecast process in enough
detail to support the creation of an acceptable sales forecast created by
collaboration between the buyer and the seller. |
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Actors (Goal)
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Sales Forecast is a
two-actor system involving a collaborative effort between a buyer and a seller.
The
lead actor in the collaboration depends upon the scenario most appropriate to
the trading partner’s business situation. |
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Performance Goals
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None
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Preconditions
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A
collaboration agreement and joint business plan must be in place. |
| Post
conditions
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Success: An
acceptable sales forecast is available for the creation of an order forecast
Failure: The trading partners
were not able to create an acceptable sales forecast. |
| Scenario
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Begins after completion of a collaboration arrangement and the
creation of a joint business plan. (Steps 1 and 2 previously described in this
document).
Continues with...
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Step
#
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Actor
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Activity
Step
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1
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Buyer, Seller
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Analyze current joint
business plan
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2
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Buyer, Seller
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Analyze casual
information
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3
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Buyer
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Collects and analyzes
point of sale data
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4
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Buyer
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Identifies planned events
such as openings, closings, holidays, promotions, ads, new products and
changes
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5
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Seller
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Identifies planned events
such as promotions, ads, new products and changes
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6
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Buyer, Seller
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Update shared event
calendar
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7
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Buyer, Seller
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Gather exception and
resolution data
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8
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Buyer, Seller
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Generate sales forecast
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Ends when... a sales forecast is initially generated by one trading
partner, communicated to the other trading partner and then used as a baseline
for the creation of an order forecast. |
| Alternative Scenario
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None
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Related Requirements
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None
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Related Rules
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None |
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Use Case ID
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UC-2
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Use Case Name
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OrderForecast
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Use
Case Description
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The objective is to elaborate upon
the Order Forecast process in enough detail to support the creation of an
acceptable time-phased, netted order forecast.
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Actors (Goal)
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Order
Forecast is a two-actor system involving a collaborative effort between a
buyer and a seller. The lead actor in the collaboration depends upon the
scenario most appropriate to the trading partner’s business situation.
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Performance Goals
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Preconditions
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A collaboration agreement, joint business plan
and baseline sales forecast must be in place.
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Post conditions
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Successful: An acceptable order forecast is
available for the use by the trading partners.
Unsuccessful: The trading partners were not able to create an acceptable order forecast.
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Scenario
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Begins after completion of a sales
forecast that has become the baseline from which order forecasting can start.
Continues
with…
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Step #
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Actor
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Activity Step
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1
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Buyer, Seller
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Provide sales forecast
data
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2
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Buyer
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Provides point of sale data
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3
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Buyer
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Provides order forecast impact events
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4
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Buyer
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Provides inventory strategies and seasonalities
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5
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Buyer
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Provides current inventory position including on hand, on order and
in transit
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6
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Seller
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Analyzes and provides manufacturer’s historical demand &
shipments
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7
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Seller
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Analyzes and provides
capacity limitations
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8
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Seller
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Retrieves additional
item management data such as frozen periods, lead times, DC changes, and
logistics data
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9
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Seller
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Gathers order
filling/shipment execution data
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10
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Buyer, Seller
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Both trading partners
gather exception and resolution data
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11
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Buyer, Seller
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Both trading partners
create order forecast
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Ends when an acceptable order
forecast is available for the use by the trading partners.
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Alternative Scenario
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None
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Related Requirements
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None
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Related Rules
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None
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Business
Transaction Activity Diagram
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Not available
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Business
Transaction Sequence Diagram |
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Not available |
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Code Lists |
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